Talk:Regiment Battle/@comment-177.141.176.148-20160118051032/@comment-27006696-20160118122818

As Meiqi said, each run is an independent event, so the probability of getting the drop is always 1% every run. But, the thing is, the probability of getting the drop till the Nth run can be calculated using a model (geometric distribution which counts the number of failures before the first success, for example). That is because we want to know abou the sequence of events, and not each event separately.

What the person in 4chan could have done, as Winterblues said, is probably (I didn't see it myself so I'm not sure) consider a geometric distribution of probability and calculated for Nth runs the cumulative distribuition function (this will give you the probability of having one success, higekiri dropped, after n failures). I did it myself to have an idea of how it is (I'm studying math at university and I get curious about those things ><).

But the drop DOESN'T change, it's just that if you do more runs the probability of getting Hige as a drop is higher just because of the fact that you played more, makes sense right? In the end it all comes down to luck, the probability is just a reference. I'm not good explaining this kind of thing but I if anyone didn't understand and got interested you can ask me... ;)