Talk:Mikazuki Munechika/@comment-71.205.239.195-20150520150904/@comment-26215551-20150520191103

In one study of about 13.3k trials for 350/510/350/350, about 1.55% of the smithing trials resulted in Mikazuki. Add on to the fact that that percentage is probably much higher than the actual percentage is (since successful reports tend to be overreported), and you're going to have to try a lot more than 10 or 20 trials.